Why Facebook May Really Be Worth $50 Billion

假設

- Facebook 2010 revenues: $2 billion (from unsubstantiated reports)
- Facebook revenue growth: 100% (also from reports)
- Benchmark ROI: 9% (historical S&P average, including dividends)
- Facebook PE in 5 years: 25 (the same as Google)
- Facebook profit margin in 5 years: 20% (Between Google and mature media companies; same as Apple)

Now, if we assume investors would be happy with anything over 9% return on their investment, Facebook would have to be worth a bit more than $70 billion in five years. Using a P/E of 25 and 20% profit margins, that would imply earnings of 2.8 billion and revenues of $14 billion. Even compared to mature media companies, those do not seem excessively high.
Moreover, to achieve these numbers, Facebook would only have to grow their revenues at an average compound rate of about 50% per year. That’s a lot, but well under their current rate, if reports are to be believed. That doesn’t mean it’s a lock, but it’s certainly doable.





http://www.digitaltonto.com/2011/why-facebook-may-really-be-worth-50-billion/

參考來源：

"Moreover, to achieve these numbers, Facebook would only have to grow their revenues at an average compound rate of"
- Why Facebook May Really Be Worth $50 Billion | Digital Tonto (在「Google 網頁註解」中檢視)